How Much Could the Presidential Election Rock the Music Industry?
The upcoming elections in the United States in November will be profoundly important, with consequences for the economy, foreign policy, technology and perhaps even democracy itself. From a music industry perspective, though, there just isn’t all that much at stake. After two decades of change, the industry has found a new business model in the U.S., in the form of paid subscription streaming, and there’s only so much a new president could do to either improve that or screw it up. Most of the industry’s policy priorities involve either legislation (which any president would almost certainly sign) or in-the-weeds rulemaking procedures.
You certainly don’t get this sense from artists and executives, most of whom support Vice President Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president — and generally tend to vote Democrat. This probably comes from their personal politics — Harris doesn’t have an extensive track record on intellectual property policy or other issues important to the music business, although she was seen shopping for vinyl and appears to have excellent taste. (Make America analog again!) For all the disdain they get from media executives, Republican presidents have often been better for it, since they tend to reduce taxes, regulation and barriers to mergers. Same goes for legislators. Most music industry executives might not care for the politics of Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), but she’s certainly helped their business.
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Which candidate would be better for any specific business isn’t entirely clear because, at a time when the world is growing more complicated, U.S. politicians seem to offer fewer specifics on complicated issues. Both Harris and former president Donald Trump seem to be running more on who they are than on what they plan to do. (Based on Trump’s comments at the National Association of Black Journalists event in Chicago on July 31, he seems to want to run on who Harris is, which says far more about who he is, and not in a good way.) Some of this seems inevitable — Trump likes to change his mind and Harris only entered the race after President Joe Biden dropped out of it on July 21. It might just reflect an increasingly tribalized electorate.
The music industry’s biggest issues have remained bipartisan, though, and they seem to occupy a rare demilitarized zone between parties in which politicians who don’t normally agree on much come together. The quintessential example is copyright, which often unites Republicans who favor property rights and Democrats who want to support the arts. The most complicated and important part of the 2018 Music Modernization Act was introduced in the House of Representatives by Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Rep. Doug Collins (R-Ga.), who may not agree on much else. (In 2018, they shared their “Summertime Heat” playlist with Billboard.) This year, the NO FAKES Act brought together Blackburn and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), among others.
The industry’s traditional opponent on strong copyright is Silicon Valley platforms, which had a lot of power under former president Barack Obama. (Months ago, I saw Obama talk about the dangers of online misinformation without mentioning that he did little to regulate the platforms it’s on.) Biden, who has been a strong supporter of copyright, has been more skeptical of Big Tech. Now venture capitalists and technology companies, who tend to vote Democrat but favor libertarian politics, are courting both parties. Reid Hoffman and a group of 100 venture capitalists have announced their support for Harris, while Trump’s choice for Vice President, J. D. Vance, sometimes seems to operate as a wholly owned subsidiary of arch-libertarian Peter Thiel. The next president will inevitably be asked to deregulate artificial intelligence at the expense of the rightsholders who own the works it will be trained on — the only question is who it will be. Investors will also push to legitimize cryptocurrency — or at least reduce the legal barriers to pretending that it’s an investment instead of a high-end pyramid scheme.
The other big issue these days is antitrust law, which the Biden-appointed Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan is trying to strengthen. The immediate issue is the Justice Department’s antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation Entertainment, but more aggressive antitrust enforcement would also make it harder for the major labels to buy catalogs and companies. Although constraining the majors could make it easier for smaller companies to compete, it could also reduce the number of potential buyers they might attract. And although Republicans have traditionally wanted to weaken antitrust law, some populists now see it as a tool to reduce the power of platforms like Google.
The next president’s ability to help or hurt the music business may come down to putting copyright provisions in trade treaties, which doesn’t really resonate with the public. AI initiatives could matter, too. More AI legislation will almost certainly follow the NO FAKES Act, but that debate mostly sets different businesses against one another. (The NMPA recently asked the House and Senate Judiciary Committees to adjust copyright law, but that’s not going to happen so soon.) It’s harder than ever to pass federal legislation, and the president can only do so much to help.
The music business will also try to get wins on smaller issues — whether it’s legal to train an AI on copyrighted content and how much involvement of AI makes a work ineligible for copyright. These are the kind of subjects that require position papers rather than strong rhetoric. But we may not see those until 2025.
