How Does Zach Bryan’s No. 2 Peak for His ‘The Great American Bar Scene’ Album Match Our Expectations?

The streak continues at least one more week for Taylor Swift: With her Tortured Poets Department spending its 12th week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart (dated July 20), she now has the longest-reigning LP of her entire storied career. And just below it this week: Americana superstar Zach Bryan’s 19-track new LP The Great American Bar Scene.

While Bar Scene debuted at No. 17 on last week’s Billboard 200 after just its first day of release — with the album receiving an unusual Thursday release to coincide with the 4th of July holiday — it jumps to No. 2 this week, with 137,000 units moved in its first full week of release. While that number is higher than any second-place finisher on the 200 since Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft in early June, it’s down from Bryan’s 2023 self-titled set, which posted 200,000 units and debuted atop the 200.

How should Bryan feel about the set’s early performance? And what might he look to change with his next album and its rollout? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. The Great American Bar Scene reaches No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with 137,000 units moved in its first full week of availability. Is that first-week performance lower, higher, or about what you would have expected from Zach Bryan’s new set?

Kyle Denis: These numbers are definitely a bit lower than I expected. Granted the album didn’t spawn an instant first-week smash à la “I Remember Everything” (with Kacey Musgraves), but I thought the goodwill from his arena-packing tour and the steady streaming performance of “Pink Skies” would be enough for the set to at least match the first-week total of Bryan’s 2023 self-titled LP. 

Jason Lipshutz: A little lower based on last year’s self-titled bow, which cracked 200,000 (albeit with a traditional Friday release). Bryan has only grown in stature since last August’s album release — “I Remember Everything” with Kacey Musgraves has joined songs like “Something in the Orange” and “Heading South” as a signature track, while Bryan has been playing to stadium crowds in the album interim — so while another six-figure showing is impressive, especially less than a year after the last full-length, the dip in equivalent album units was a little unexpected. 

Jessica Nicholson: That number feels close to what I would expect, given its July 4 release date and given that fans (especially Bryan superfans) are more apt to delve into the album deeply within its first few days of release.

Kristin Robinson: This is below what I would’ve guessed, especially because this album had 19 songs, a pretty long track listing and longer than his self-titled album from 2023 which had a better first week. Given Zach has picked up so many fans in the last couple years, I would think the long track list plus growing fanbase would equal a stronger first week than previous projects for him. In the streaming era, I think the second and third weeks are especially telling for the success of the album so I’m waiting to see what the next weeks bring – were these first week numbers primarily one-time curiosity listens or will this album be a grower?

Andrew Unterberger: It’s lower. When Zach Bryan debuted with 200,000 units last year, it was attention-grabbing, but it also felt like it was just the beginning for him — his trajectory just kept going up from there, right up to the No. 6 Hot 100 debut for “Pink Skies” last month. To be honest, I thought this album’s debut (well, technically not debut, but you know) would leave the self-titled’s in the dust, and I remain a little at a loss for why it’s instead coming up well short.

2. The first-full-week numbers are down from Bryan’s prior self-titled set, which bowed at No. 1 with 200,000 units in September 2023. What do you think is the biggest reason for the decreased performance?

Kyle Denis: Definitely the lack of a something as instantaneous as “I Remember Everything.” On that note, Kacey is arguably the most streaming-friendly artist Bryan has ever put on one of his studio albums, and the lack of an artist of that specific caliber probably contributed to a dip in general interest for the new record. There’s also the fact that Bryan has been notably ubiquitous over the past two years ago – not that that’s stunted the success of other massive artists like Taylor Swift and Drake. The difference here is that Bryan has released three LPs, one live album, two EPs and several standalone singles in the past two years – and they rarely deviate from his trademark sound. People might be feeling just a little bit of Zach Bryan fatigue.

Jason Lipshutz: The Great American Bar Scene was likely hamstrung by both the Fourth of July release — with plenty of Americans not paying attention to new music that Thursday, and queuing up another spin of “Party in the USA” while celebrating the holiday — as well as an over-saturation of Bryan’s recorded material. The singer-songwriter has become an undisputed superstar, but even the biggest artist would likely struggle to conjure as much excitement around a new 19-song project as the 16-song project that they released 11 months earlier. So while Bryan’s devoted listeners were ready for The Great American Bar Scene to arrive, I’d guess that some casual fans weren’t quite as prepared to press play during its opening week. And that’s fine! Bryan will have plenty of material for both his stadium shows and for all types of listeners to discover at their own pace.

Jessica Nicholson: 2024 has been a year of big album releases so far — Beyonce, Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, Future and Metro Boomin among them — so one reason for the decreased performance could simply be there are already so many attention-grabbing projects out there for fans to consume this year. That’s in addition to a more upbeat, danceable slate of viral hits that have dominated the first half of 2024, such as Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” the Wallen/Post collab “I Had Some Help” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso.”

Kristin Robinson: Two things. First, I just think the self-titled album was stronger in general. That album was a phenomenal highlight reel of what Zach is capable of as a singer-songwriter. Second, I think Zach’s free-wheeling approach to releases can hurt him and it did here. He does not like playing the industry game, which I can respect to a certain extent, but sometimes his unwillingness to do typical promotion and marketing means that fans just are not aware that new music is coming. Pair that with the fact that he’s put out more music in the last twelve months than some artists do in the span of 2-5 years and you garner a mix of confusion or even apathy from fans with each release.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s easy to blame the 4th of July drop — both for splitting up his first-week numbers and for burying news of its release — and to some extent, it’s probably fair. But I don’t totally buy it as the only or even the main explanation; when artists are as big in 2024 as Zach Bryan has become, fans will find your new album one way or the other, and it’s not like Bryan ever benefited from a particularly massive rollout on prior albums either. I’m more likely to buy that folks are just a little too spent on Bryan — or based on his robust catalog numbers, maybe too busy catching up with the older stuff? — at the moment to stream this new album with any particular ravenousness, and that with no physical release yet to go with the set, his early numbers are a little vulnerable to such dips in enthusiasm. But I’m still sorta stunned the dip was this pronounced.

3. The two big hits from the album so far seem to be the pre-release single “Pink Skies” and the new top 20 debut “28.” Which of the two songs do you think will ultimately be the biggest hit from the set — or do you think something else on the album will overtake both?

Kyle Denis: I think “Pink Skies” will ultimately stand as the album’s biggest hit, but “28” could certainly overtake it with a remix. While I find the John Mayer joint (“Better Days”) just okay, there’s certainly potential for it to become another hit off the record based solely on their combined star power. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Pink Skies” is the one that will endure, based on both its Hot 100 track record and its sonic makeup; the song remains the highest-charting new Bryan song a few weeks after its release, and its harmonica-heavy, gently rendered reflections of post-death togetherness is ripe for getting fans choked up at Bryan’s shows, in between bellowing out the lyrics. “Pink Skies” demonstrates Bryan’s appeal as a detailed storyteller and subtly powerful vocalist, and will be the defining song from this set.

Jessica Nicholson: “Pink Skies” is beautifully delivered, and music listeners seem to have gravitated toward the song’s story of navigating loss, while the jangly percussion and harmonica keep it from being too forlorn. This seems to have gained the most traction, though “28” feels slightly smoother, sonically, so I could see it potentially overtaking “Pink Skies” as the album’s biggest hit. 

Kristin Robinson: I think “28” will be the most dominant song from this album overall in terms of popularity. That hook is undeniable. But “Pink Skies,” which is about grief and losing a loved one, will continue to live on as a favorite among the fanbase. I see it being cemented in his live sets and continuing to be a high streamer for him, but maybe not his greatest crossover success.

Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, with Bryan’s (still objectively impressive) first-week numbers coming in a little bit soft by his current standards, the massive bow of “Pink Skies” — and its continued top 20 endurance — becomes even more impressive in retrospect. It may end up being more of a defining hit for him than I would’ve thought upon its debut.

4. The guests on Bar Scene are split between the galactically famous (Bruce Springsteen, John Mayer) and the more if-you-know-you-know type (John Moreland, Noeline Hofmann). Do any of them bring out anything particularly new or interesting from Bryan and his music to you?

Kyle Denis: Not particularly – and that’s part of why the new record feels a bit limp at times. There’s nothing close to “Hey Driver,” which found The War and Treaty’s robust, soulful tones pushing Bryan into new, refreshing vocal territory. 

Jason Lipshutz: Noeline Hofmann is the first guest that appears on the Great American Bar Scene track list, on the beautiful and affecting duet “Purple Gas,” and the singer-songwriter had me feeling like the Shaq “I wasn’t familiar with your game” meme. Hofmann not only holds her own against Bryan, but her soaring tone complements the more gravelly aspects of his delivery; not only did “Purple Gas” make me want to take a deeper dive into her discography, but it also made me hope that this collaboration wouldn’t be a one-off. 

Jessica Nicholson: Bryan’s music incorporates elements of so many different styles, that each of his collaborations feels cohesive with the album’s solo tracks. Some lean slightly more rock, others folk or bluesy, but they are all within Bryan’s expansive musical wheelhouse.

Kristin Robinson: Zach tends to do this – equally mixing newer, smaller artists as features next to his big-name heroes. I love that about his records. I was especially impressed by Noeline Hofmann, and I plan to dig into her own music based on her performance on “Purple Gas.” She did not pull out anything particularly new for Zach, we already saw this side of him on the Kacey Musgraves duet “I Remember Everything,” but I think their voices blended well.

Andrew Unterberger: I like John Mayer adding a little loose-limbed jamminess to “Better Days.” There’s definitely something to be unlocked for Bryan and his band there — consider the fever pitch that “Revival” hits live when it stretches out to double-digit minutes, and maybe apply some of those lessons to a mid-album curveball or two next time around.

5. Bryan may very well be the type of artist who doesn’t put a ton of stock in his first-week performance — but assuming he was, and didn’t want to see those numbers continue to slide from album to album, what’s the most important piece of advice you would give him before he sets out on his next LP?

Kyle Denis: Try not to dilute your presence with so many projects in such quick succession. Let the music – and yourself – breathe for more than a few months at a time. 

Jason Lipshutz: I could tell Bryan to hold off a little bit in between album releases in order to stoke anticipation for his next album a little more cleanly, or limit his track list to the sturdiest 12 tracks to limit the sprawl a bit — but honestly, what Bryan has accomplished over the past two years is so wildly impressive that, if I were him, I wouldn’t take a ton of stock in outside opinions! Bryan has toed the line between gargantuan commercial success and industry singularity, blazing his own trail in country-rock without abiding by traditional rollouts or release schedules; while I’d be tempted to nudge him toward music-biz conventions to help his first-week performances rise even higher, that would also betray what he’s created for himself. So: Keep doing you, Zach, and the world will keep listening.

Jessica Nicholson: Bryan is a prolific writer — over the past year, he’s issued a 16-song self-titled project, the five-song Boys of Faith project, and now his 19-song The Great American Bar Scene album. Perhaps giving slightly more time between project releases would be a good option. The past few releases have included several collaborations with a wide-ranging array of artists, which have sparked intrigue and discussion. Continuing the next project with collaborations with some unexpected artists would seem an obvious choice.

Kristin Robinson: Plan out a true roll out. It doesn’t have to be like everyone else’s. I believe there’s a way to craft a roll out that doesn’t make you look like a pop star sell out. I’m still marveling at Charli XCX’s Brat roll out which felt so totally her, and did a great job at reminding people every other week that she had music coming. We live in a time where our attention is divided more than ever, and I would love to live in a Zach Bryan “era” for longer than what he typically gives to fans. Build the world around the music!

Andrew Unterberger: Take a lesson from The Boss: Bryan’s hero and collaborator never stayed in the same place for multiple albums, switching up his approach, his structure, his songwriting and his themes for pretty much every new record during his peak. What would a Zach Bryan small-town theatrical epic sound like? Or a collection of haunted folk ballads? Or — as I wondered the last time we did this — a hits-on-hits-on-hits blockbuster? Part of Bryan’s charm to date has been that his albums haven’t felt overly considered — neither did Springsteen’s first couple — but the really great ones can also plot out a full LP from top to bottom and execute it to perfection. I’m hoping he shows us that side of his skill set next time out.

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Written by Mr. Nimbus