What Does the Success of Charli XCX’s and Billie Eilish’s ‘Guess’ Remix Mean for the Rest of ‘Brat’ Summer?

In an era when most albums peak in interest during their debut week and slowly slide away from there, Charli XCX‘s Brat is already two months old and still seems to become more central to the pop conversation every week.

As two of the album’s established hits continue to climb the Billboard Hot 100 this week, with “360” climbing 44-41 and “Apple” rising 66-52, the two songs are leapfrogged by the No. 12 debut of “Guess,” boosted by the Brat bonus cut’s new remix featuring pop superstar Billie Eilish. The flirty collab between the two pop hitmakers (with an eye-catching, undergarment-strewn video) instantly becomes Charli XCX’s highest-peaking single since 2014, while Eilish collects her sixth new top 20 hit this year.

What does the song’s success mean for the rest of the pop season increasingly referred to as Brat summer? And how important are the song’s sapphic overtones (particularly in Eilish’s new verse) to the continued normalization of LGBTQ content in top 40? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Charli XCX’s Billie Eilish-featuring remix of Brat deluxe reissue cut “Guess” debuts at No. 12 on the Hot 100 this week — making it easily the highest-peaking hit from the entire Brat era. Is its success just a matter of the combined star power of the names involved, or do you think there’s more to the song’s success?

Katie Bain: Certainly it’s a function of the star power, plus a general curiosity of what Billie would bring to the song, then also an acknowledgment of how well she delivers on the track. It seems likely as well that timing is a factor, given that the remix came out 10 days after Charli’s culture-sharking “Kamala IS brat’ tweet whipped up a frenzy and pushed the album further into the cultural conversation, particularly areas where it didn’t previously exist, drawing more attention to anything/everything about the project. The song’s female-centric themes also dovetail neatly with the woman-power vibe of the Kamala Harris campaign (albeit in a much more explicit way), so the remix coming in the wake of the tweet made for synergy, and likely made a difference in the track’s performance.

Stephen Daw: I’d argue it’s more the latter. There’s no denying that nabbing a mega-star like Billie Eilish for the “Guess” remix was a huge get for Charli, but the reason this remix works is because it feels like a missing piece of the song has been added. Instead of simply repeating the same verse, Billie gets her own take on the track with some truly out of pocket lyrics that add to the performative idea behind the single. Sure, having these two stars together on one track certainly contributed to the song’s success, but I doubt it would have charted this high were it not for Billie’s cheeky performance.

Jason Lipshutz: The star power helps — after all, Billie Eilish is one of the biggest active pop superstars on the planet, with another smash currently in the top 10 of the Hot 100 — but the “Guess” remix has largely benefited from the general buy-in to the Brat era and the narrative that Charli XCX has harnessed with the project. Brat has become the definition of cool in pop over the past few months, and because of that, its deluxe-edition songs, remixes and music videos have all enjoyed the snowball effect of Brat Summer, with each new release receiving greater and greater attention from a larger number of listeners. For her part, Charli has played this rollout perfectly — including saving her biggest remix collaborator for the moment in which Brat consumption reached a fever pitch.

Taylor Mims: Combined star power is definitely a factor in the song’s success. Both Charli and Billie are having huge summers with two great albums, but throwing two big stars on a track doesn’t necessarily make a hit. Billie has been a superstar for years now, but Hit Me Hard and Soft shows off her different, lighter side with tracks like “Lunch,” “Birds of a Feather” and “L’Amour De Ma Vie.” A track like “Guess,” which ends with the line “You wanna guess if I’m serious about this song,” is so unserious in the best way possible — and makes it a perfect companion for Billie’s current repertoire, which makes it easy for her fans to get on board.  

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a combination of a star power 1-2 and just good planning in general: Everything about the rollout, timing and general conceptualization behind the “Guess” remix hit just right. Personally I think there’s plenty of other Bratverse songs that deserve to be as big (and likely bigger), but the major debut of “Guess” is sort of the culmination of the entire era to this point anyway.

2. As Brat summer just keeps getting hotter, the album continues to climb back up the Billboard 200, now ranking at No. 6 — three spots off its No. 3 debut a couple months ago. Do you think it will eventually best that original peak, or do you think the season of Brat is soon to wind to a close?

Katie Bain: It depends on what tricks Charli has up her sleeve to keep momentum going. She’s promised that a remix version of the album is coming, which would likely only draw more attention to the original, so depending on what her next chess moves are, I think there’s reason to believe it could continue climbing and segue us all into Brat Autumn. 

Stephen Daw: Every summer has to end, and that includes Brat summer. I could see the album gaining another position or two with another big, blockbuster remix (maybe with Troye Sivan ahead of their co-headlining Sweat Tour?), but I think we’re marching towards the end of the cultural chokehold Charli has held us in for the last few months.

Jason Lipshutz: Part of the answer will depend upon how much the Brat hits continue growing on the Hot 100; if Charli can score an enduring top 10 hit from the album, then the album has a good shot at rising back to, or above, its No. 3 peak. At this point, though, that battle has already been made moot by a successful war: Brat is now Charli xcx’s longest-running album on the Billboard 200 chart, and a full-blown cultural phenomenon that keeps getting bigger. Want to know what’s cooler than having a No. 1 album? Having one that helps define pop music for an entire season in 2024.

Taylor Mims: Just because school has resumed, does not mean we are done with Brat summer. The Democratic party candidate has been dubbed “Brat” and, if we are to make it through an election year in the U.S., we’re gonna need the Brat season to carry over into the fall. The allbum seems like it will easily regain its peak position and possibly even reach the summit following this “Guess” remix. Clocking in at under two and a half minutes, this song will get repeat listens at a rapid pace, and propel Brat further and further up the chart.

Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t bet against Brat‘s momentum at this point — it feels like she’s taking the Noah Kahan-minted approach to this album of continuing to crank out star-studded remixes and deluxe editions as long as fans have the appetite for ’em, and right now they still seem hungry as ever. Personally, I hope it peaks at No. 2 — marking an undeniable triumph, but still allowing Charli to hold onto a bit of her underdog edge.

3. Meanwhile, Eilish’s own “Birds of a Feather” keeps gaining momentum on the Hot 100 — reaching a new peak of No. 7 this week. Why do you think that song has grown into the biggest breakout hit from her Hit Me Hard and Soft album?

Katie Bain: Melody. Whereas a lot of the album is more challenging/experimental in terms of structure, themes and Billie’s vocal delivery, “Birds of a Feather” is a bright, straightforward, singalong pop song made for radio. 

Stephen Daw: “Birds of a Feather” feels like something genuinely new from an artist who has made a career from out-of-the-box creative decisions. The thing that makes “Birds” stand out in Billie’s catalog is that, sonically, it isn’t as eclectic as her other hits — it’s a simple, dark love song. It doesn’t lose that ephemeral quality that makes Billie Eilish songs so fascinating to listen to, but it also manages to recontextualize Billie in a more conventional sound that feels different from anything else she’s put out, let alone anything else on Hit Me Hard and Soft. Bonus points for the fact that her voice sounds nearly perfect on this track.

Jason Lipshutz: “Birds of a Feather” has maintained its high streaming totals while also establishing its foothold on pop radio, helping the song stay a hit in its first few weeks of release and then grow into an even bigger one recently. It also helps that “Birds” has the fans squarely in its corner: “Lunch” was the clear focus track upon the release of Hit Me Hard and Soft, but “Birds” quickly swooped in (pardon the pun) as the standout, and the early supporters are still listening to and championing the song three months later.

Taylor Mims: Obvious answer: because it’s a great song! Billie has historically had a much darker, moodier sound on her albums – plenty of which can still be found on HMAS – but “Birds of a Feather” is the opposite. The song is pure pop delight with her delicate vocals and the deeply sincere lyrics. The term “I want you to stay” could be dismissed as commonplace, but it’s actually an incredibly vulnerable thing to say to a new love and the lyrics only get better from there. It’s a phenomenally sweet love song that I think will only gain popularity the more it is played.

Andrew Unterberger: You know what pop fans still love, even in 2024? A good love song! You don’t hear as many on top 40 radio as you once did, of course — especially straightforward ones, written without much anger or resentment at their core — but when you hear a great singer testifying “I’ll love you ’til the day that I die” and sounding like they mean it, it’s still hugely powerful no matter who you are.

4. The crossover success of “Guess,” in a summer that’s already seen songs of same-sex love and attraction from Chappell Roan and Eilish solo hit the top 10: very meaningful for LGBTQ presence and acceptance in pop music, somewhat meaningful, or not ultimately that meaningful?

Katie Bain: Representation is, as ever, important, especially when coming from two of the biggest pop stars on the planet who are at once celebrating and normalizing same sex love and attraction, and via Eilish, doing in a way that’s authentic/not performative. That feels meaningful. 

Stephen Daw: Without question, this is a Big Deal™ for the community. It’s not entirely new — Lil Nas X topped the charts back in 2021 with “Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” a song that is very loudly about queer sex. But what’s important about the success of “Guess,” “Lunch,”  “Good Luck, Babe!” and most of the other six songs Chappell currently has on the Hot 100 is consistency. Where past tracks about same-sex attraction could be written off as singular hits born out of a cult of personality, the continued success of all these songs about queer romance on the charts proves that audiences aren’t discriminatory when it comes to the object of a good love song — they care about specificity and whether or not it sounds good. That is a huge deal for every LGBTQ+ artist who has ever been told that they need to make their song more “universally appealing” (read: “less gay”), and a message to labels and distributors around the globe that these antiquated “rules” about what sells in pop music have been largely abandoned by modern audiences.

Jason Lipshutz: Very meaningful, just like all of these moments that help normalize same-sex feelings and relationships within popular music. Nothing about “Guess” is shocking in 2024, especially following recent hits by Chappell Roan and Eilish, but every song like it remains significant in rearranging the expectations of what a hit can express lyrically and musically. This year has been a landmark one for LGBTQ artists in the upper reaches of the charts, but more work needs to be done, and more songs like “Guess” means more positive developments. 

Taylor Mims: This is a very meaningful moment for LGBTQ+ representation in pop music, but especially for queer women. For centuries, women who love women have been disappeared from culture because of homophobia, for their own safety or simply because people didn’t think they were real. On top of that, there was the issue of “who their audience would be.” Gay men have long been a target audience for “divas” and pop stars, but Chappell and Billie (along with Renee Rapp, Janelle Monáe, boygenius and MUNA) have proven that queer women are an eager and powerful fanbase. And I much as I would like to believe that every person in those massive Chappell crowds identifies as LGBTQ+, I don’t think that’s the case — she is appealing to the widest of audiences.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if it’s as meaningful as the other examples on the whole, but I think it’s particularly meaningful simply in its casting. If this was a decade ago, maybe Charli just enlists the guy from The Dare to be her leering co-star, and the results are fun but uninspiring. Instead, she keeps him behind the decks for “Guess” and allows her female peer to be the ogler — with much richer (and likely more successful) results. That’s a pretty big deal. Now the question is who on the hetero male side of pop hitmaking will be bold enough to do the same with a queer male star like Troye Sivan or Lil Nas X.

5. If you could flip the “Guess” batting order and have Charli XCX appear on a track from Hit Me Hard and Soft, which would you have her feature on?

Katie Bain: Given the hard left that “L’Amour de Ma Vie” takes at the 3:40 mark, it would create a huge sense of anticipation for Charli to show up on this last section of the song, which, which it’s ’80s synth production, exists within the electronic world she’s already so adept in.

Stephen Daw: I think a Charli feature on “L’Amour de Ma Vie,” especially with the song’s big electronic breakdown in its final minute, would be very cool. Maybe a duet takes the hyperpop concept and expands it into an entire dance remix for Charli and Billie to sing over, or maybe it gives Charli another chance to show off her ballad skills like she did on Brat’s SOPHIE tribute “So I” — either method would make for a stunning new version of the song. 

Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with “The Diner” — it’s got a cheeky streak that’s up Charli’s alley, and I’m imagining her pumping up that pre-outro bridge. Let’s do it, folks!

Taylor Mims: My first thought was “Lunch” since it sonically makes sense for Charli, but I wouldn’t want to change that song in the slightest. So, “L’Amour De Ma Vie” would be my runner-up. The track would probably need to be put in electro-overdrive, but the lyrical content would be fun for Charli to step into. A Charli verse about a terrible ex would undoubtedly be a banger and would take that dagger of a song and make it a death blow.  

Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t be surprised if Billie and Charli were planning a “Lunch” Pt. 2 — “Linner,” perhaps? “Tea Time”? — as we speak.

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Written by Mr. Nimbus